The emergence of Model Context Protocol (MCP) in late 2024 created a watershed moment in AI's economic impact. By enabling AI agents to connect with external tools and data sources through a standardized protocol, MCP has launched an "Agentic API Economy" where AI systems can autonomously perform valuable tasks that previously required human labor.
We introduce the "Iceberg Index" - the first quantitative metric of our economic susceptibility to Agentic AI automation. This methodology combines large-scale occupational data with real-time MCP server tracking to provide an evidence-based view of AI's growing economic footprint.
Just as an iceberg has a visible portion above water and a much larger portion hidden beneath, our economy has visible jobs that seem immune to automation and a growing portion that's increasingly susceptible to automation. The Iceberg Index measures this hidden portion - the percentage of economic value that can currently be automated through MCP-enabled systems.
Project Iceberg Workflow: How we calculate the Iceberg Index
The Iceberg Index is calculated through a comprehensive, data-driven methodology organized around three key pillars:
We build a comprehensive digital twin of the US labor market, mapping its technological composition and automation susceptibility.
We analyze each occupation's technological profile by measuring:
We classify skills into three primary categories based on automation potential:
We track the MCP server ecosystem to identify which human capabilities are being digitally replicated.
We calculate the Iceberg Index to quantify the economic transformation driven by agentic AI.
We calculate two key metrics:
We analyze the Iceberg Index across three dimensions:
The Iceberg Index will continue to grow as MCP servers proliferate and AI agents become more capable. Based on current MCP server growth rates and capability improvements, we project significant expansion of automation potential across the economy.
Access Iceberg Index data programmatically:
Project Iceberg continually refines our methodology to improve the accuracy and utility of the Iceberg Index. Our research agenda focuses on expanding both the breadth and depth of automation impact analysis.
Through this ongoing research, Project Iceberg aims to provide the definitive measure of AI's economic transformation, helping stakeholders navigate the rapidly changing landscape of work in the age of agentic AI.